South Africa: Population as a Boon or Burden?

Carolyn Lamere
The idea that population can have an effect, positive or negative, on the economy of a country is not a new one, nor is the notion that a country's economy is intimately linked to its national security. There are few countries, however, which can claim that their population is both a boon and a burden; South Africa is one of these few.
It is no secret that South Africa struggles with a high prevalence of HIV/AIDS infection that has been ravaging its population since the mid 1990s. The most demographically terrifying aspect of the disease, besides the fact that there is no cure, is that it affects primarily the men and women of working and childbearing ages in a given population. In other words, the disease primarily affects the citizens who should be the bulk of South Africa's workforce and the parents of the next generation of South Africans. HIV/AIDS, then, is ravaging South Africa's economy by decimating its present and future workforce.
Despite this marked disadvantage, South Africa still has the strongest economy in the region, ranking number 26 in the world for its GDP in PPP. Elizabeth Leahy of Population Action International writes of the potential for a “demographic dividend” in countries with traditional age structure. Since countries with a declining birth rate have a large proportion of their population in the workforce, they are able to be highly productive. South Africa is a good example of a country with a transitional age structure as its total fertility rate, or the average number of children a woman will have in her lifetime, has declined steadily and rapidly since 1960. This means that there are fewer dependent children in South Africa now than there have been in the past, allowing for maximum productivity in the workforce.
The impact of South Africa's booming economy, especially when compared to some of its neighbors, can be seen in the development of alliances. Among these is IBSA, a trilateral alliance between India, Brazil, and South Africa. That South Africa was included in an alliance with these two regional giants speaks volumes to the impact South Africa has managed to make in the region; Brazil and India each have substantially larger populations and subsequently larger potential workforces than South Africa. This partnership also hints at South Africa's international aspirations that are beginning to be manifested in an alliance with such far-flung partners. While each member of IBSA is still struggling with poverty (in 2004, IBSA members held 43 percent of the world's poor), South Africa is still the only one of the three facing a desperate against HIV/AIDS. How can the country with the largest number of people infected with HIV/AIDS in the world truly be an equal partner with states that do not have the same massive challenge to overcome?
As Leahy states, “demography is not destiny;” there are factors besides population that contribute to the success or failure of a state. For example, Zimbabwe has seen a decline in total fertility comparable to South Africa's, but no corresponding economic boom due to economic and political mismanagement by the government. Similarly, South Africa's former President Thabo Mbeki's refusal to acknowledge the link between the HIV virus and the AIDS disease and the effectiveness of antiretrovirals in treating HIV/AIDS set South Africa back in its fight against the aggressive disease. But South Africa's relative economic success proves that, for the most part, its economic and governance policies have been beneficial to the growth of the state.
Despite the overwhelming challenge posed by HIV/AIDS, there is still hope for South Africa. It has successfully transitioned to democracy from the dark apartheid era, and remains one of the few viable democracies in Africa today. It successfully hosted the World Cup this past summer, showcasing its capabilities to the world. South Africa certainly has a long way to go in the battle against HIV/AIDS, but has demonstrated its commitment to the fight. If South Africa dedicates resources to countering the spread of HIV/AIDS and continues to strengthen its international alliances, it will continue to reap the benefit of its demographic dividend.