Although it has traditionally been viewed as second only to Canada in terms of Western powers that don’t actually matter, France actually wields a good deal of international political clout. It sits as one of the five permanent members of the Security Council, fifth largest GDP in the world, and currently is the world’s fourth largest military spender, behind the US, China, and Russia. They also have quite a few nuclear weapons. However, recent demographic trends have the potential to topple this long-standing bastion of Western free-thought, and change the very composition of its society.
Youth in Revolt
The French don’t quite have a perfect track record in terms of civil obedience, so no one was exactly surprised when in October of this year another wave of mass protests swept around the country like wildfire. Over a million protesters filled the streets, this time blocking many key fueling stations. The French finance minister estimated the cost to the French Republic to be 400 million Euros a day. These protests in the past have been more than a simple nuisance, they have been effective. In 2006, Jacques Chirac was forced to pull a law that would have made it easier to fire young workers due to the massive protests impeding the ability of the government to function.
So what have all these young people been protesting? Another law concerning young people? Increases in student tuition? Trendy cafe smoking bans?
The Young, the Old, and the Old-Old
To some, young people protesting pension age increases en masse might seem like an irony, but in France, it has become a reality. Students have taken to the streets to protest what they see as a direct threat to their job security. Nearly 1 in 4 French youth under the age of 25 is unemployed. By raising the age at which one can receive a pension from the government, the youth fear that those who want to retire will have to work longer to receive their pensions, and consequently there will be fewer jobs for those entering the workforce.
Sarkozy maintains that these pension reforms are needed to keep France’s economic situation stable, especially given the global economic downturn. Sarkozy’s fears are valid. France’s society is aging, and is destined to only get worse. After WWII, around 1950, France had a massive increase in the number of babies being born. In France, as in the US, these baby boomers are about to retire, creating a ‘geriatric boom’ and a massive economic strain to France’s pension and healthcare systems. Looking back at the list of military spenders, no other country in the top four has a social welfare system nearly as extensive as France’s. In fact, paying public pensions accounts for nearly 23% of France’s governmental expenditures.
As France’s largest generation retires, the strain on its economic systems will only get exponentially worse. If only there was an influx of young people willing to contribute to France’s economy, thus relieving the economic strain of the old….
Immigration Nation
Unfortunately, many problems that affect the youth, also affect immigrants. Young immigrants are dealt a double whammy. Unemployment in immigrant neighborhoods can be as high as 40%, and these neighborhoods are often breeding grounds for crime, causing some French to label those who dwell within them as “the riffraff.” Immigrants are also considerably stigmatized in France, especially Muslim immigrants. Far from showing solidarity with these new workers, France has attempted to force immigrants to assimilate, rather than let the process happen organically. A law that would ban the burka and hijab from being worn in public places, now being considered by the French parliament, has only served to alienate the Muslims, rather than help foster ties with the native French community. There is a growing divide between France and its Muslim population. A full 46% said they viewed themselves as Muslim first, French second. The economic downturn has only served to worsen tensions. During the recent elections, The National Front, the far-right, anti-immigration party, did unexpectedly well, garnering almost 12% of the vote.
All Things Considered
Demographic factors will determine the fate of France’s strained social welfare system, and could very well mire the French public in intermittent cycles of rioting and civil-governmental strife. France’s TFR is above replacement levels only due to the fertility levels of recent immigrants. Furthermore, the population of France, like most European societies, is aging. Younger immigrants could assuage the effects of this aging process, but loosening immigration restrictions has proved to be a point of contention among French citizens. As a point of policy, the French government needs to determine where its interests lie. If it chooses to focus its energy on traditional, particularly military security, it could economically ignore the concerns of its population, and France’s internal strife could erode its international political legitimacy.
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