Defeat From Within: Israel's Disproportionate Arab and Jewish Population

The first President of Israel Chaim Weizmann wrote once that Israel was “a land without people, for a people without a land.”¹ The irony is there were people— a lot of people— forced to leave their homes, or become part of the Jewish state. Once upon a time Israel “overran” Palestine; now Israel is being “outran” by Arab people. Based on the current growth rate of Arabs and Palestinians, it will not be long before the Arab population takes over from within. From 2000 to 2025, the Arab population increased by 6% whereas Jewish population decreased by 7%.² Currently even Arabs within Israel don’t call themselves Israeli, and the OECD member countries chose not to put their embassy in the capital because of the illegal annexation of East Jerusalem.³ There are two main instigators of conflict: Israel’s long standing border dispute with Palestine and the intentional and unintentional segregation of Arabs, and what exacerbates these issues is the disproportionate growth rates of Arabs and Jews.

Population has a lot to do with why Israel wants the land but not the Arab people. It’s not just ethnic hatred, but Jews want a Jewish state and if the West Bank and Gaza are annexed, Israeli Jews will become the minority in 10 years, according to Monica Toft. To illustrate my point three factors need to be taken into account: First, the Disproportionate population growth of Arabs and Jews and their distribution; Secondly, the disproportionate number of young within the Arab and Jewish population; and thirdly, the disproportionate employment and economic level among Arabs and Jews.

On the national level the annual growth rate for Aras and Jews are 2.6% and 1.7% respectively.⁵ If we go a level deeper and look at population distribution, it’s evident that large Arab populations are located in the Northern and Jerusalem District, comprising 44% and 19% of the Arab population in the Northern and Jerusalem District.⁶ A level deeper reveals the population in the Northern District is 53% Arab, which makes the Jewish population the minority. Furthermore, there is still a Jewish majority in Haifa District with 24% of Arabs, Southern District with 16%, and the Tel Aviv and Central D. have the lowest percentages of Arab population in the State (1-8%).⁷ Additionally, there are 129 localities that are entirely made up of Arabs, and 35 localities comprising less than 2,000 Arabs.⁸ Concentrations of Jewish and Arab population, and localities that are almost completely made-up of Jews or Arabs is evidence that Israeli Jewish and Arab populations segregate.

Why is this information useful for predicting conflict? Because it becomes evident that Israel is a stratified country, refusing to integrate. Israel’s national identity is closely related to its population identity, and if trends continue, Jews will be the minority. Stratification indicates disproportionate distribution of benefits. Compared to Jewish men, double the number of Arab men do not participate in labor market. Even more alarming, the OECD reports only 15% of Arab women participate in the work force, whereas 53% of Jewish women participate. These numbers highlight the reality of Arabs in Israel—they are the poorest ethnicity (excluding the small population of ultra-orthodox Jews).

Currently all of Israel’s districts have populations where 22- 35% of the population is 15 years of age or younger. This is a huge number of people entering the job market, and as can be expected Arabs have a much higher number of relative youth. The median age for the Arab population is 20; for Jews it is 31. ⁹ Unfortunately, this large cohort of young people may not be able to find jobs. The OECD found the number of teens not working and studying in Israel was 60% higher than member states. This is a significant number of young and jobless people.

To relate youth and conflict, Henrik Urdal says, it is the large numbers of unemployed youth in the context of a government that does not provide support that instigate internal conflict. Another population expert, Monica Toft, says in a multinational state that has some correlation between distribution of benefits (like employment opportunity) and group identity, disproportionate population growth can be a major source of conflict. In this case it is the differential growth of Arab and Jewish populations that creates conflict. Therefore, high overall unemployment and youth unemployment, in particularly the Arab population, can create motives for conflict in light of rapid Arab population growth.

According to the Trade Union Advisory Committee to the OECD, the stability of Israel is a high concern to the developed nations of the world, and as such Israel was just accepted into OECD, which is a club of the 31 most powerful economies in the world. And I, a population and national security student at Rhodes College, suspect that with the reputation of countries like the United States, Germany, France, and Japan Israel will be more driven to solve its internal and external conflicts with Palestinians and Arabs.