While this was happening there was another transformation happening, a less obvious one whose affect is only beginning to be seen today. Since 1990, Russia has been in the process of an epic population shift that brings Nicholas Eberstadt to assert in his Slipping Growth that, “judging by vital statistics alone, it looks like a country trapped in a prolonged and devastating war.” In 1990, Russia’s population was 148 million people. Today, it has already decreased by over 8 million and according to the United Nations Population Division it is on pace to decrease by 40 million in the next 40 years.
While it is not uncommon that developed countries begin decreasing in population because of lowered fertility rates, the swiftness that Russia is losing people is eerily similar to the atrocities committed in Stalinist Russia or Mao Zedong’s China. However, instead of dying from gulag prison camps or a “great leap forward” Russians are dying from a failure of the regime to establish a competent health care system.
Alcohol consumption in Russia is currently 100 times the global standard set by the World Health Organization. According to Russia’s public chamber, the death toll directly and indirectly linked to alcohol hovered near 500,000 people just last year. Along with alcoholism, Russia suffers from the 11th highest HIV infected population in the world and a shocking level of increased cardiovascular related deaths. Eberstadt claims in his The Enigma of Russian Mortality, “Russia’s mortality levels from CVD alone stand some 30 percent higher than deaths in Western Europe from all causes combined.” All over the world cardiovascular related deaths are lowering however, Russia has somehow managed to reverse the trend. A failure of this kind falls squarely on policymakers who refuse to dedicate the necessary resources to a dying population.
Russia is a very privileged country with the largest natural gas reserves in the world and is the 2nd highest oil exporting country, behind Saudi Arabia. However, Russia is insistent on preparing for unnecessary and quite frankly for non-existent threats. Russia’s defense spending is rapidly approaching the $60 Billion mark which is the fifth largest in the world. The world we live in is no longer dictated by the size of a country’s standing army. State on State conflict seems to be disappearing as fast as the Russian population. However, Russia’s defense spending continue to balloon.
Russia’s healthcare bonanza is much more of a threat to its national security than any other state or non-state actor. Russia’s nuclear stockpile is made up of 12,000 nuclear warheads, which is good for the largest in the world. In fact, if you were to decrease this number by 11,700 it would still have the 2nd largest in the world. This gives Russia the most powerful nuclear deterrent in the world. That in and of itself reduces the likelihood of an all out state on state conflict to almost zero. Russia must begin reducing its defense spending and concentrating on setting up a working healthcare system. More and more Russian’s are unable to work because of treatable, non-communicable diseases. This includes the military, in which 60% of draft eligible men receive deferment, generally because of health reasons. For now, Russia is able to mask its economic problems because of its enormous energy sector. However, each year that it allows to go by without addressing the healthcare of its citizens, Russia loses more and more people that can aid in a non-petro economic resurgence.
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