Harnessing its power in numbers: Turkey’s Population as New Priority

The Republic of Turkey may just have a new agenda for its national security--and this kind does not necessarily involve the military.

For decades, Turkey has seen unprecedented economic growth. From the time of the regime of the highly revered Mustafa Kemal Attatürk until today, Turkey has undergone several political and economic reforms that have launched its success as a country able to both adopt a fully-functional secular government and still maintain an Islamic tradition. In the eyes of most Westerners, this has been its crowning achievement, and has virtually defined the country’s position in world politics.

In order to secure this type of regime, the state had made Kemalism one of its prime objectives of national security. While Turkey does have cause to be praised for its dedication to a secular government, that is not its only treasure. In fact, it has a hidden gem that may enable it to move from a position of relative importance to one that puts it on par with other developed and highly influential countries in the international community. This “hidden gem” that I refer to is its population.

Turkey’s population, and what it will look like in the next 30 to 40 years, is central to its success and the heart of what will be its future national security. How Turkey understands and uses its population could mean the difference between viewing Turkey as an important regional power and regarding it as a crucial global power; one that might not be on the same level as, say, the United States or China, but one that these two will surely want on their side in the decades to come. That is, if Turkey can take advantage of its unexpected and under-utilized resource.

People unfamiliar with demographics and population might be skeptical of this claim, but anyone who interprets population trees and can infer the significance of a country’s TFR would relish the juicy population statistics that Turkey has to offer.

First, Turkey has a total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.13. It has dramatically decreased from 6.93 between 1950 and 1955, and is projected, using a medium fertility variant, to drop to 1.85 between 2025 and 2030. (A medium fertility variant is used for countries, like Turkey, “where fertility has been declining but whose level was still above 2.1 children per woman in 2005-2010.)” The difference between these two numbers is crucial; it is the difference between the current TFR for a rapidly growing African country and one for certain European countries. To put in perspective Turkey’s drastic TFR change, even Finland, a European country that is known to be fairly fertile, had a TFR of only 3.0 between 1950 and 1955.

Second, Turkey has a large population of working age. Currently, over half of its population is between the ages of 15 and 59. It has been this way since the 1950s, and is expected to even increase to over 60% by the year 2030. This is a large pool with which Turkey can access potential workers, thereby boosting its economic productivity, and also providing a safety cushion for the country when it eventually deals with its more aged population.

Does the term, transitional age structure ring a bell? For those of us who do not immerse ourselves in the world of demography and its political implications, it may escape us, (and rightly so), but it has immense significance to Turkey’s political and economic trajectory. In essence, Turkey has what demographers call a transitional age structure, meaning its population is transitioning from young and steadily growing to more aged and slowly growing. This transitional structure puts it in a prime position for being a potential rising economic power. It also means, unfortunately, that Turkey has no guarantee of staying that way, as it has a “window of opportunity” that must be seized in order for it to secure its chance for a higher status in the international community.

While population is key, it must be used as a resource in conjunction with its economy, which is ranked 16^th in the world! This fact should not be overlooked. From this stepping-stone, Turkey can begin to focus on enacting sound, economic and social policies that look towards its future. Also, Turkey can use its current economic situation to promote better education and a higher standard of public health. Most importantly, through trade and promotion of international business, Turkey’s economy can attract countries to invest in it, promoting stronger ties to states all across the world.

No longer will Turkey only be known for bridging two continents or being home to fine coffee, desserts, and flavored tobacco. No longer will it stand for simply the model of a secular oasis in the midst of an ever-increasingly hostile Middle East. (Not that these lack importance) Turkey will now have its moment to shine for something it has accomplished all on its own, from the ground-up, almost undetected; something that will be just as relevant a force in the future as any other—for its economically beneficial population.

Undoubtedly, the manner in which Turkey frames and addresses its national security agenda in relation to its population in the next few decades will determine its future success. Its ability to translate numbers into policy will determine whether Turkey becomes a new and powerful actor in the international community, or whether it misses its chance and falls to the way-side, forever wandering, “what could have been?”