When I first thought of Iran the only thing that came to mind was their nuclear program, but there is so much more to this country concerning national security. Iran’s population trends affect how this country addresses national security; it is of the same importance as nuclear weapons. Sixty-nine percent of the population is considered urban, officially moving Iran into the “developed country status”. The increased flow of people emigrating from Iran in conjunction with a multitude of refugees pouring into the country has played a part in driving national security and the country’s operation. Iran has done much to improve the quality of its peoples’ lives. However, because Iran developed a more accessible education system, there are not enough jobs to employ the well-educated populace. This creates a brain drain, or emigration of its educated and trained population. This significant amount of emigration from the country creates a lack of highly skilled citizens that could improve the infrastructure of the country. Additionally, those people are able to go work for other countries’ governments, which hurts the national security of Iran and benefits others instead.
Even though the country’s population has shrunk since the baby boom of the 1980s, those children are now of working age and require jobs. The youth bulge will continue to be a problem as they get older and their issues will progress into concerns of financial stability and the availability of people to support the elderly and their country. This is already a problem due to the decrease in population after the 1980s, since there are not enough people to provide for the aging population by 2050.
Another issue is that too many people are left idle, which creates the perfect atmosphere for protests and rebellion, especially in young people, because they are often bored, frustrated with unemployment, and want someone to blame. A convenient and common place to point this blame is on the government, resulting in increased revolts against it and leading to a weakened unstable system. As seen in the student protests of 1999, these youthful protests “were not organized well and had no leadership,” it was motivated purely by the agitation and sentiment that the government was not acting on the best interest of the people and was not compromising at all; the “Islamic establishment” was not going to reform anything and imposed an environment of fear. If the nation does not take care of its people and take advantage of having a young working age population, the results could be dire.
The youth bulge creates increased competition for jobs, land and housing, and education. An increase in competition can cause many economic side effects, which can either be positive or negative depending on which side of the fence you are on. This correlates negatively to the emigration of highly educated individuals. Because there is a higher percentage of the population that is educated, there are fewer jobs to accommodate this increase in the workforce, which can force workers to leave the country in order to support themselves and their families. If there are so few remaining in Iran who are cultivated, educated, or scientific then there are insufficient resources to develop and support strategies for natural disasters, family planning programs, or other stabilizing programs. It is important that Iran realizes that they must put the needs of their people before their goals of maximizing production and power. This means more jobs need to be created, and “the sharing of employment rather than efficiency in performance” should be their priority. The government needs people on their side and in favor of their policies, and this can only be done if the populace is content with the decisions being made by their officials.
Iran has undoubtedly created a monster. By trying to increase the standard of living through education and not addressing the lack of jobs and unemployment, Iran started a vicious cycle of emigration and a less educated populace. Despite seeming counter intuitive, they did not create a balance. The individuals who take advantage of the improved education system cannot find jobs in Iran so they are forced to leave and find employment elsewhere. This allows for refugees to immigrate, completely altering the political and socioeconomic landscape of Iran. Due to the growing number of refugees in Iran it is important that the government remain cognizant of them when creating policy. Refugees can create disruptive political situations as well as issues with national security during wars or conflicts.
While many realists believe that an increase of population can be beneficial to improving their military manpower and economic strength, a fast growing population can actually be a detriment to a country in terms of national security. Iran will have to focus on keeping their educated population in Iran. With that comes figuring out ways to make the refugees return to their home countries in order to establish a more stable country. If Iran figures out a way to do this then their citizens will have an education, place of employment, and a more satisfied populace. As the children of the baby boomers age and need social security, the country will need to organize a plan to maintain the supply of social security for such a large group of dependents. The infrastructure of the state is in jeopardy if these problems are not resolved. While its nuclear program is on other countries’ radars, Iran needs to be concentrating on its internal social and economic issues before they should worry about competing in the nuclear weapons race.
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